that Donald Trump will comply with the Protective Order issued by Judge Chutkan in the January 6 case?

Near zero, I think. And his lawyers will be falling all over themselves to explain away or justify his violations when they are called before the judge, as they surely will be, to determine whether Trump should be held in contempt and, if so, what penalties should be imposed.

Trump will, I believe, continue attacking the judge, the justice system, the law, and anything else he believes will get attention in the media (who will duly report every outrage) and prepare his cultish supporters for what he hopes will be their next move, namely, a violent challenge to the law and order across the country. Trump likely believes that short of fleeing to a non-extradition country he may be out of options that his usual tactics of delay and obfuscation have achieved in the past. There is no reason to doubt that the carefully constructed evidentiary case against Trump for the January 6 insurrection will be persuasive beyond a reasonable doubt to any jury that fairly assesses it.

Trump’s trump card (sorry) is to force the judge to the edge of considering having him incarcerated, without his phone, pending trial. This prospect arises because no monetary penalty alone will suffice to control his behavior as long as he has free access, as he has in the past, to donated funds from his PACs and his rich benefactors. Money is literally no object to him in this circumstance.

Trump’s winning game therefore is to force the judge to order his arrest and detention, which will prevent him from campaigning, and thus drive his army of fanatical worshippers over the edge and into violent resistance. That is the true meaning of Trump’s social media post, ‘If you go after me, I’m coming after you.’

The judge has some alternatives, but none are going to suffice if Trump is determined not to be silenced. The judge could, for example, impose further restrictions on Trump’s access to the discovery materials that normally must be turned over by the prosecution to assist the defendant in preparing a defense. That approach hands Trump an additional claim that he was denied the opportunity for a fair trial because he could not participate fully in preparation of his defense.

The Protective Order issued by Judge Chutkan is not mysterious. It authorizes the Prosecution to designate various discovery documents as “Sensitive Materials” and imposes tight restrictions on their use [“defendant” replaced with “Trump”]:

Except as provided in this Order, without prior notice to the United States and authorization from the court, no Sensitive Materials, or information contained therein, may be disclosed to any person other than Trump, defense counsel, persons employed to assist the defense, or the person to whom the sensitive information solely and directly pertains and that person’s counsel….

… defense counsel may not allow Trump to write down any personally identifying information as identified in Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 49.1 that is contained in the Sensitive Materials.

Of particular note:

…during any time that Trump reviews Sensitive Materials outside of defense counsel’s presence, Trump must not have access to any device capable of photocopying, recording, or otherwise replicating the Sensitive Materials, including a smart cellular device.

The trial judge has thus clamped the jaws of good order and justice tightly to send a clear message to Trump about what will be tolerated. That, of course, is a challenge Trump is unlikely to take lightly no matter how many assurances his lawyers offer up that he will comply.

Never forget that Trump has declared that “I have an Article II, where I have to the right to do whatever I want as president,” and he thinks he is still the president. People like Trump are unable to recognize that they have brought on themselves the troubles they face, by, in his case, and for example only, removing and mishandling top secret documents from the White House that he has claimed “are mine” and that he declassified just by thinking about declassifying them. He uses his abuses and law violations as a badge of victimization with which his cultish supporters sympathize because they see themselves also as victims. He hates and fears the same people they hate and fear, thus producing the perfect symbiosis.

Trump remorselessly directed his followers to attack the Capitol on January 6 to stop the transfer of executive power from him to Joe Biden. The whole world watched the attack on TV and has sense seen endless film of the assault in brutal detail, all the while Trump resisting calls from within and outside of his administration to call off the attack. Trump dug his own grave on this one, along with the Mar-a-Lago documents case, and has no one to blame but himself. He will, however, always true to his nature, almost certainly try to force the court’s hand because, well, that’s what he does.